[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N18W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 3S30W AND 3S39W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE
SOUTHWARD...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO A BROAD AND COMPARATIVELY
ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N82W
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SPANS
THE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS NEAR 16N68W AND IT GOES BEYOND 32N71W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W FROM 10N TO 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N IN
COLOMBIA TO 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 71W NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N71W 16N68W RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N50W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
14N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE THAT STARTS NEAR 16N68W AND PASSES
BEYOND 32N71W IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
IS MOVING TOWARD THE 26N50W CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N53W. THIS FEATURE IS BEING CLASSIFIED
AS A SUBTROPICAL 1.5 ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...COMPARATIVELY...
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 25N50W AND 20N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W
AND 54W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W.
NO EASILY-DISCERNIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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