[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
3N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-7N. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N W OF 40W...INCLUDING THE
COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...
PROVIDING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE
SUPPORTS A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W.
WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH
CENTER...SE WINDS 10-20 KT ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 86W. HAZY
SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF W OF 93W ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DUE TO SEVERAL WILD FIRES IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS INDICATED ON NOAA
SSD FIRE PRODUCTS. A LESS DENSE AREA OF SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST ARE REPORTING LOW CEILINGS WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 SM DUE TO THE CONCENTRATION OF HAZE IN
THIS REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA COVERING THE
FAR SE GULF AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER W CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF
23N. WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
THE W TIP OF CUBA COVERING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER W CUBA
AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA W OF 80W
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN...BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST TROPICAL ATLC...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 70W-78. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...FROM 18N72W TO 11N75W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WED...AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SW
TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N62W TO 28N67W. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS FOUND FURTHER EAST...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 50W-63W...ASSOCIATED
TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC INTO
THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SW
OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...FROM 26N62W TO 21N69W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 55W S OF 15N TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 50W...ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH TUE NARROWING ON WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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