[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 27W.

THE 71W/72W TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE 22/0000 UTC ANALYSIS
WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 22/0600 UTC ANALYSIS. WE WILL REPORT
ABOUT THIS WAVE AGAIN IF AND WHEN MORE DATA ARE AVAILABLE
IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO LOCATE IT.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N18W 2N34W 3N39W TO 1N46W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W...FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
10W AND 20W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 38W AND 52W
IN COASTAL BRAZIL AND ALONG THE BORDER WITH FRENCH GUIANA...
AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN COVERING THIS AREA FOR THE LAST
4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW HAD BEEN PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A. WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW IS THAT THE
EASTERN U.S.A. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH ITS OWN TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY CUT OFF
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM THE
1017 MB HIGH CENTER WESTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
IS CONNECTED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF 90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 88W NEAR SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND 95W IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N70W
15N72W FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD
THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN U.S.A.
HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 38N66W TO 30N70W TO 256N75W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N61W 22N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 35N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N31W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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