[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGER THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 65W AND
67W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG
70W FROM 6N TO 7N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 3N30W 3N37W...PASSING THROUGH
THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 10W AND 15W IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST FROM LIBERIA TO
SIERRA LEONE...AND FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 31W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 85W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE
EAST OF 90W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC PATTERN IS
ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 69W/70W FROM 14N TO 23N
PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 73W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 77W/78W FROM 14N TO 20N PASSING RIGHT ON TOP OF JAMAICA.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
30N TO THE WEST OF 64W...AND FROM THE AREA OF THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W...AND
COVERING ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
60W FROM 20N TO 32N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 69W/70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N47W...TO 30N47W
27N50W 25N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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