[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191717
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W AT
10 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS OVER VENEZUELA TO 4N. IT IS EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 5W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-19W...AND FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. 10-15 KT
SE FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE 15-20 KT SE
FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
THE WESTERN GULF N OF 16N BETWEEN 88W-98W. FAIR SKIES ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NW FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THUS THE AREA IS VOID OF
ANY HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 16N
TO NW VENEZUELA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO SHOWS EXTENSIVE SHOWERS FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-69W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...W-SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E
OF 68W...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 68W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N73W TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N60W TO 25N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N48W TO 27N49W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF
10N E OF 42W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DUST OVER THE E
ATLC FROM 6N-22N E OF 32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO
DISSIPATE...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/MONTALVO





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