[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/556 TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
NORTHERN BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 52W IN FRENCH
GUIANA AND 60W IN GUYANA.

...THE ITCZ...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS IN AFRICA ALONG 16N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N22W 2N31W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 36W TO 1S45W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN AFRICA
FROM 2N4W TO 10N16W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 19W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ELSEWHERE FROM 1N47W TO 7N52W...
SEPARATE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND
TO CENTRAL MEXICO...THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO
GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS.

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
27N66W 21N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOT INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR CURACAO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 18/0000 UTC WAS
0.82 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W
AND 64W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 39N46W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N49W...PASSING
THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N47W TO 20N49W. LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS
WITH NO OBVIOUS AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N38W TO 13N40W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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