[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE BRAZIL
FROM 10N44W TO 1N48W. THE WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5-8 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS
VERY LITTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
THE AXIS...AND ENE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE REMAINING
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 7N BETWEEN 43W-53W
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W S-WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W. THEN...IT RESUMES OFF THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S38W AND CONTINUES NW INTERSECTING THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 2N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 30W.
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM 6N24W TO 2N26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
DRY SUBSIDENT NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE GULF E OF 96W. AT SURFACE...NORTHERLY 10-15 TK DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS PACKING LOW LEVEL
STRATUS AND AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO S OF 26N W OF 96W. A WEATHER STATION LOCATED IN THE
COAST OF TAMPICO...MMTM...INDICATED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 1/2
SM WITH LIGHT RAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS... WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGHING W OF 74W. THIS PATTERN
IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDUCING BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN
70W-74W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE ATLC BASIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG
18N71W...EXTENDING SW INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W...
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAINS VERY HIGH IN THE REGION OF CONVECTION
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHING TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE LEVELS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N75W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 25N77W AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CUBA ALONG
23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
70 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD AND
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ROTATING AROUND
37N47W. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT
NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
DEPICTING THE MAIN WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
32N42W 26N45W 25N54W 23N64W. A BROAD AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH.  SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC E OF 40W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 34N17W. MINIMAL
ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
WEATHER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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