[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150008 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W EQ40W 1S48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 16W-18W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-5S BETWEEN
30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N84W 25N90W 24N98W.
MOST OF THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ALONG 30N81W
25N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 95W-98W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF
TO SW FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR
WEATHER. 10-15 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10
KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF
95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO N COLOMBIA TO
PANAMA ALONG 19N67W 14N70W 9N80W 9N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 61W-67W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER MOST OF VENEZUELA FROM
4N-11N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. A
70-90 KT TROPICAL JETSTREAM IS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N W
OF 78W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N74W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN
48W-54W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT
15N53W. A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N20W
MOVING NE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
CENTERED AT 33N57W AND 35N21W PRODUCING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE WESTERLIES N OF 25N FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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