[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N11W ALONG 5N20W
3N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W AND INTO NRN BRAZIL NEAR
1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE W COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF
5N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N84W TO 26N88W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AS OF 0900 UTC. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH 45 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.
DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH NO ACTIVE
WEATHER IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT STRONG SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE GULF AND NRN FLORIDA AS THE FRONT AND
TROUGH MOVE EWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN WITH MOISTER
CONDITIONS S OF 14N. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF JAMAICA AND WRN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR ANGUILLA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N70W 10N82W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES IN THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS...WITH STRONG ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH SITS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST N OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER LOW CONTINUES TO
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 36N62W TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N57W TO 25N68W DEPICTING
THE MAIN WIND SHIFT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N53W
TO 21N68W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS S
AND E OF THE SECOND TROUGH TO 45W INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER
E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ERN
ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 7N43W TO 36N39W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
FAR E ATLC ALONG 19W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1012 MB LOW W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALMOST HORIZONTALLY
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM 31N23W TO 29N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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