[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W EQ37W 1N43W TO NE BRAZIL
ALONG 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5S-6N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO
27N89W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N
BETWEEN 85W-89W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE NE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. HAZY SKIES ARE NOTED ON THE SW BASIN S OF 24N W
OF 90W ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DUE TO SEVERAL WILD FIRES
IN THE NE AND EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 87W-96W ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 SM DUE TO THE CONCENTRATION OF HAZE IN
THIS REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS E
TEXAS...IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGHING N OF 14N W OF 68W...WITH MOST UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED S OF 13N OVER COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS INDUCING BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING THE EASTERN
BASIN E OF 74W. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE ATLC BASIN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 18N63W...EXTENDING SW TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 13N73W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH HAS DISRUPTED TYPICAL EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN...AND GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN. A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 75W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC ROTATING AROUND
36N60W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 48W-63W. A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO A FAIRLY
STRONG 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FURTHER SUPPORTS THE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION... A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N57W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG
18N63W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N53W
24N60W 22N66W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N43W TO
21N45W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW. A 1010 MB LOW IS NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 30N18W PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND LOOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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