[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N23W 2N31W 1N36W 2N42W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 5N44W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 2S ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST TO 6N IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA BETWEEN 42W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO
AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM
2S TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE MIDWEST OF
THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STILL-DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AREA
FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...ACROSS MEXICO AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REACHES 90W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF
90W...MOVING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N76W IN
THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 13N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO
NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND PANAMA AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN BROAD
MONSOONAL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
LINE THAT GOES FROM THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 14N78W
TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO
EASTERN HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF 48W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MULTIPLE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW...REALLY ONLY TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES AWAY FROM THE 995 MB CENTER TO 31N58W. A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AND IT REACHES
31N49W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N49W TO 28N50W
25N52W AND 22N56W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
22N56W TO 21N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19N63W 22N55W 25N45W BEYOND 33N46W. A WEAK LOW LEVEL-TO-MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ALONG 14N50W 18N43W 22N42W 24N37W TO
25N31W BEYOND 31N29W. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE...AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN
36W AND 42W. THIS WEAK FEATURE IS IN BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT



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