[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W 2S40W TO NE BRAZIL COAST
NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC A 1016 MB HIGH LIES NE OF THE GULF NEAR 29N84W AND
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER PARTS OF THE GULF. AT THE UPPER
LEVEL A RIDGE WITH CURRENT AXIS AT 91W MOVES ACROSS THE GULF.
THESE CONDITIONS AT LOW AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS FROM
10-20 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS BEING NW OF THE
GULF W OF 89W. THIS SYNOPTIC WIND PATTERN AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED ALONG
20N51W 19N60W 17N68W...THE SHEARLINE CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
16N75W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN ALONG THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...AFFECTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN 24 HOURS THIS PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND OUT OF THE REGION.
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE FAR SW
BASIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED TO THE CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN
N OF 16N W OF 68W SUPPRESSING ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION. LIGHT WINDS OF 10-15 KT CHARACTERIZE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NW
ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N55W 26N60W 24N69W 24N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT A 1016 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED
NEAR 29N77W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED NEAR 25N43W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FARTHER EAST TWO TROUGHS REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARE ANALYZED. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N28W TO 25N30W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 21N36W 19N39W
17N42W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED TO THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

RAMOS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net