[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 8N12W 4N22W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
30W AND 36W THEN ALONG 2N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
ITCZ E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ E OF
19W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH
IN THE W ATLC HAS BEEN TRAILING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS S FLORIDA AND AT 08/0300 UTC HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED IN THE GULF WATERS BUT REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND NAPLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA S OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT GIVING MOST OF THE GULF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 86W-90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER
THE NE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH OFF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W.
SE TO S RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SETTING UP OVER
THE N GULF.THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF
THROUGH TODAY AND MEANDER THROUGH THU WEAKENING SOME MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN FROM NEAR TRINIDAD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT MAINLY OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NE NICARAGUA
GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FRESH NE TO E TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TRADE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA ARE PUSHING ISOLATED SHOWERS SW INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THE TRADE WINDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
N CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 65W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT THAT AT 08/0300 UTC
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W TO 28N74W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30
NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 30N77W. NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
BETWEEN 20N-30N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N64W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF 30N
NEAR 34N43W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS.
A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 20N46W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E ALONG 29N45W TO 29N49W...A 1009 MB
LOW IS NEAR 31N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG
27N44W TO 25N50W AND A 1006 MB LOW IS N OF THE REGION WITH A
DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 24N37W TO
16N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE DOMINATE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W. THE W ATLC FRONT
WILL REACH ABOUT 250 NM E OF THE BERMUDA TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
BY SUN NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE. A THIRD COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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