[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070547 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE IN WEST
AFRICA ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 110 KT JET STREAK PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF THE S-EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
ALONG 27N82W TO 26N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N90W CONTINUING
SSW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W.
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N E OF 74W. WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...WEST OF THE PANAMA CANAL. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE SRN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE S-EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N78W
TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
TO THE E OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF
55W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 33N48W. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE OUTERMOST
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W 23N43W 17N50W CONTINUING AS A
SHEAR LINE TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N60W. A LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS E OF THIS TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN
32W-40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N46W 25N50W
22N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF
19N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR 30N52W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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