[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE IN WEST
AFRICA ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IS BRINGING WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...REMNANT ENERGY LEFT
FROM THE DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL PRODUCING
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 89W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST
BASIN...ANALYZED FROM 29N83W TO 25N85W. THIS TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 85W. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH. AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE NE GULF BASIN...THE
ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO INDICATE A 90 KT UPPER JET
STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE NEXT 6 -12
HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 73W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA AND W OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 13N76W. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA ALONG
32N65W TO 27N70W DISSIPATING FROM THIS POINT THE COAST OF S-ERN
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LOOSE MOMENTUM AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A SECONDARY PUSH OF ENERGY WILL
ENTER THE WEST ATLC WITH CONVECTION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MOVES
OFFSHORE SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FARTHER EAST...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1009 MB LOWS NEAR 27N55W AND 30N49W
RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THE FIRST LOW LACKS OF CONVECTION AND WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 200 NM E AND NE OF THE SECOND LOW.
THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N OUT OF OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
33N48W IN 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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