[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W EQ20W 4S30W 5S35W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7S-2N BETWEEN 22W-40W...
AND FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N83W 27N91W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AND IS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA INHIBITING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE
SE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC REMAINING DRY.
ALSO EXPECT 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF IN
24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER
ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E AT 25N45W
MOVING NE. A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS FURTHER E AT 26N33W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO 27N27W. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES NE TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 32N18W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW AND FRONTS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 40W WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICS AT 8N31W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO N OF THE BAHAMA...AND FOR
THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONTS TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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