[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N9W WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W EQ30W 2N40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN
20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE HIGH PRES CENTER... WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS S OF 28N AND SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW W OF
92W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN. THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN HAITI
TO NEAR 15N78W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FOUND
WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN
71W-78W. THE OVERALL FLOW IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONSHORE
ALONG THE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA COASTS.
ALSO...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
GRENADA TO GUADELOUPE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WEST ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N77W PROVIDING
MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
W OF 60W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPINS
NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE REFLECTION LOW NEAR
26N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
20N53W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE CENTER TO NEAR 24N46W.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-31N BETWEEN 43W-53W. AN EARLIER ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS N OF
THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N54W TO 13N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 17N W OF 58W AFFECTING MAINLY THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA E OF 43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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