[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 1N30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 17W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SSE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A 1027 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
NEAR 30N86W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROAMS THE AREA
WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT SURFACE...SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-75W. A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAXIMA IS FOUND IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THE OVERALL FLOW IS
PUSHING ISOLATED SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA COASTS. THE SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR WEST ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 30N77W PROVIDING
MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
W OF 66W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N61W. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 34N61W 31N63W 27N65W.
TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 26N63W
TO 22N65W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-62W. COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
AROUND 25N53W WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N26W
TO 25N30W TO 21N40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY STRETCHES
WESTWARD TO 22N48W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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