[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE BORDER OF LIBERIA AND THE
IVORY COAST NEAR 4N8W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 15N CONTINUING
W ALONG 1S AND INLAND INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN
12W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W...FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W AND
36W... AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND
26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E-CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING A 1027
MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA WHICH IS PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVE TO THE SE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE SPANS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN...
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREAS SW OF HAITI FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
73W AND 75W AND . FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING MOISTURE ALONG
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
HONDURAS... NICARAGUA... COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH ENE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAXIMA IS FOUND NEAR THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 190 NM OF THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA...AS OF 1500 UTC... NEAR 32N71W
EXTENDING TO 29N76W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR 28N79W TO 26N80W. A TIGHT
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING ALONG 27N37W TO
25N45W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING TO 25N54W. A PREFRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N36W TO 22N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 105 NM E OF THE FRONT AND 60 NM W OF THE FRONT E OF
37W... WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COMBINED FRONT AND TROUGH
BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 40W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED S
OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 22N50W 20N49W
16N50W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E 30W IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1027
MB HIGH N OF THE AREA. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DENOTES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ATLC TROPICS FROM 10N-24N E
OF BAHAMAS TO OVER AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/GARCIA





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