[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...
TO 3S25W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S35W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-14W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 245 NM S OF THE ITCZ ALONG THE 14W
MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIE
FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR 250 NM E OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF ALONG
31N86W 28N90W 26N95W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 87W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 29N85W 27N88W 25N87W...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THIS
TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH LIES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 23N92W TO
20N93W...HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. E OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRESENTLY THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH IS BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
10-20 KT ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MID AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM 6N TO 25N WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THESE REGIONS OF THE BASIN. W OF 55W THE REMNANTS
OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF
10-20 KT IS AT EITHER W OR E OF THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A STATIONARY FRONT TO ENTER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BRINGING SOME SHOWERS WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/FG





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