[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W
TO 03S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
10W-21W. BROAD SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EVIDENT OVER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 08N BETWEEN 30W-50W FOCUSED IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07N50W TO THE NE
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 01S46W. MOST OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 07N50W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED AS WELL DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 04N30W TO 12N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER MISSOURI THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO
NEAR 25N102W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS OF 14/2100 UTC LIES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON BAY NEAR 29N95W
TO CORPUS CHRISTI BAY NEAR 28N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND
RECENT LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH IMPACTS REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 25N AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS EVENING SE OF THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY LIGHT E-SE WINDS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
28N BETWEEN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND 90W. AS THE FRONT EXITS NE OF
THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N50W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD TO 15N80W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BASIN WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THIS EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
THOSE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS EVENING
INDICATES HIGHER VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH AREAS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 19N W OF 80W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NE
NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC W OF 55W. THIS FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N72W WHICH
IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 60W WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING
SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO NE WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF 22N BETWEEN
61W-75W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 29N58W TO 24N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY  FROM 24N-36N BETWEEN 46W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N39W. THE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN
20W-46W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL REMAINS LOCATED WEST OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA CENTERED NEAR 40N14W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N10W AND TRAILS SW TO 27N16W NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N
E OF 19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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