[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 3N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 25W INTO E BRAZIL S OF THE EQUATOR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING FROM 7N51W TO 1N46W.
SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF
5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
33W-38W...AND FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 7W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N20W TO 1N29W AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 38W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR SE OF LINE
FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS NE MEXICO AND E TEXAS
TO ALONG THE NW GULF COAST ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N84W AND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THIS
IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N91W
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN BUT IS NOT PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF TO INLAND OVER THE
LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO W OF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE WITH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW GULF MON NIGHT AND
WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS EARLY TUE THEN WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT STALLS OUT OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS TUE
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
DEEP TROPICS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 13N E OF 69W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OFF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
13N82W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH FRI WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS
WELL AS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO
27N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W AND A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N
OF 16N BETWEEN 25W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W TO THE NW COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 32N9W JUST SE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N19W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 27N E OF 20W TO OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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