[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 2N15W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
22W-37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL S OF THE EQUATOR. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N52W ALONG 4N49W TO S OF THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 7N AND WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 4N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 40W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 28W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR SE OF LINE
FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
MEXICO IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS N MEXICO AND
TEXAS TO ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N84W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH IN
THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH COVERS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF COAST MON
NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TUE
MORNING THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT STALLS OUT OVER THE NE GULF
WED AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
DEEP TROPICS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
BASIN GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W...FROM 14N-28N BETWEEN 73W-79W... AND S
OF 15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU WITH STRONGER
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS NEAR THE WINDWARD
AND MONA PASSAGES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W EXTENDING ALONG 28N63W TO
25N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 24N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR 21N74W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT/SHEAR AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N77W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS A
WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N40W SUPPORTING A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N49W ALONG 22N43W TO NEAR
20N38W. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH 33W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLC IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N
OF 25N E OF 32W TO THE NW COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N14W TO 28N22W WHERE TI
DISSIPATES ALONG 26N27W TO 28N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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