[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NRN LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG
2N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO NRN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS
EVENING WITH AXIS NOW EXTENDING JUST W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE WRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AS OF 2100 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT NOW LIES ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING
FAIR...STABLE CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE FAR
SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT LEAVING FAIR
AND COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS APPROACHING
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE AREA SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC CAUSING
A  WEAKENER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ONLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE CYCLONIC AROUND A 1012 MB LOW ON THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N76W. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SE.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW MADE ITS WAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CROSSING NRN FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N77W
ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO WRN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME VERY STRONG...ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR
CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BETWEEN 60W-73W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS NEAR 28N50W SUPPORTING A  1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
31N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 29N46W 24N40W 21N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 29N49W 26N48W 21N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CLOSER AND E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
28N-32N BETWEEN 43W-53W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE
FRONT TO 44W...N OF 29N. FARTHER E...ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 35N18W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 34N17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES WINDS UP
TO 30 KT ARE NW OF THE CENTER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA CENTER S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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