[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 33W...TO 1S39W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 5N
BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE
EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO AND
INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ON TOP OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM
24N86W TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWESTERN BELIZE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 22N79W 16N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT
PROBABLY NOWHERE ELSE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N74W
23N80W. THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EVERYWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWESTERN BELIZE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF 22N79W 16N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT
PROBABLY NOWHERE ELSE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF
81W...IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COMPARATIVELY
BIGGEST AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 63W AND 67W...FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W...
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...FROM 16N TO HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W...BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...AND FROM 13N
TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS OCCURRING
IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N58W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER
IS NEAR 28N56W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM
32N47W TO 29N53W INTO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 24N54W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1011 MB
LOW CENTER TO 18N64W AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SECOND TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO 25N52W
23N46W 20N42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
35W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 24N72W.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N32W 20N24W
AND 10N23W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 37N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 38N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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