[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
34W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 06/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO VENICE THEN SW INTO THE
GULF ALONG 125N85W TO 22N90W AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
NEAR VILLAHERMOSA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND GULF WITH
AXIS FROM GEORGIA SE TO THE SW GULF AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. CONSIDERABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE
ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE OTHER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...ARE ALSO
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WEST OF THE FRONT IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE CHIVELA PASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY
AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS
NOTED NW OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT OCCURRING OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 78W...
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
AT 06/2100 UTC FROM CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP E-NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 26N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N57W
THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 21N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS
LARGELY THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NEAR CUT-OFF LOW
FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF 32N54W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST
OF THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 24N-35N BETWEEN
44W-58W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS
FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED E OF 40W
WITH AXIS FROM 32N37W TO 20N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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