[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N20W 1N30W
TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
10W AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM
LOUISIANA TO MEXICO GIVING THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT...AS OF 1500 UTC...ENTERS THE AREA
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W AND EXTENDS TO 25N88W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N91W TO 20N92W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO BE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE 15-20 KT TRADES S OF 18N. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND WEAKEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N64W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N71W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 68W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 90
NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 68W AND WITHIN 45 NM NW OF THE COLD
FRONT. A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS SUPPORTING A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N42W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO THE N ALONG 32N42W THROUGH 34N20W TO 31N38W BECOMING A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N40W TO 17N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF 26N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N46W TO 10N56W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH
N OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE 105 PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
ON THURSDAY MARCH 03...DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM UPGRADE.

$$
MONTALVO/LEWITSKY




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