[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN IVORY COAST CURVING TO 5N14W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S28W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S42W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W FROM THE COAST TO 1S. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
5S TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST
OF 24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES...ENDING IN THE WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
26N88W 29N83W...AND THEN WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N83W
BEYOND 32N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N80W...
ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N84W 26N91W 18N95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST 80W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT EVERYWHERE IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W...FROM 20N TO
PANAMA. THE 32N59W-TO-25N72W-24N85W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF
MEXICO RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A NEW AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS SOME IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH 32N46W TO 21N49W TO 17N50W. A SECOND AND SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N38W TO 21N40W.
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE GALE CENTER IS NEAR 33N39W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N38W AND 24N39W...
17N48W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1009 MB LOW
CENTER TO 31N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N36W
TO 20N39W 15N42W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 15N42W TO 10N45W 5N50W...CURVING THROUGH CENTRAL FRENCH
GUIANA...SOUTHERN SURINAME...AND CENTRAL GUYANA...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. THE SHEAR AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
SINCE YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N59W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 46W...
EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE 32N59W HIGH CENTER TO 25N72W...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG 12N34W 24N31W BEYOND 32N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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