[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

T.S. ARLENE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 01/0000
UTC. T.D ARLENE REMAINS INLAND AND IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 98.7W
AT 01/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM W OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 80 NM
SW OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING WSW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 57W/58W S
OF 15N WHICH WAS BASED ON MID LEVEL CURVATURE. HOWEVER...THAT
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE BEHIND THE ACTUALLY WAVE AXIS OF NEAR 59W
AND WILL RELOCATED ON THE NEXT MAP. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W
NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE
FROM 53W TO 63W AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W OF AN UPPER HIGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED ALONG 77W/78W
FROM 15N-21N. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ANALYZED BENEATH AN UPPER LOW. IT NOW
APPEARS THE WAVE IS ALONG 80W BASED ON THE INTERACTION OF THE
WAVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS MOVING
W AT NEAR 15 KT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 22N10W INTO THE E
ATLC NEAR 19N16W THEN S ALONG 7N25W TO 9N37W WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUING ALONG 9N42W 8N52W TO 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N E OF 32W TO
INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO GIVE THE W GULF SHOWERS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND OVER MEXICO...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH
T.D. ARLENE COVERS THE GULF W OF 89W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N89W ACROSS THE E GULF AND S FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF
89W. AT 30/2100 UTC A WEAK 1012 MB LOW HAS DIPPED S TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TO OVER S ALABAMA
AND S MISSISSIPPI TO S ARKANSAS. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
OVER E TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF
E OF 85W FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
FURTHER INLAND. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE W GULF WILL STEADILY
DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND AN UPPER LOW
SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N76W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA
RICA BORDER WITH N FLOW ALOFT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND INDUCING
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N17W TO 14N78W
TO 15N85W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS WELL
AS INLAND OVER HAITI AND E CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND NICARAGUA NEAR
11N84W PRODUCING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
E OF 72W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND BE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NW THROUGH TUE
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO 28N73W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER S FLORIDA NEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE TO BEYOND 32N73W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-19N W OF 55W ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC BASIN EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 34N45W ALONG 30N65W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE
WHILE WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER FAR W ATLC.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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