[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ARLENE IS NEAR 21.5N 98.1W AT 30/1800 UTC
INLAND IN MEXICO. ARLENE IS ABOUT 90 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 95 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO. ARLENE IS MOVING WESTWARD 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO AND
THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 97W AT THE
COAST AND 100W INLAND. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 105W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N. THE WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
SURROUNDS THE WAVE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 55W/56W TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N75W TO 14N77W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 23N
TO 19N10W TO 18N18W 12N19W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N27W TO 7N41W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 8N20W
9N30W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N30W 10N35W
11N40W 8N46W 9N51W 8N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS IMPACTING EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE U.S.A. EAST COAST EVENTUALLY REACHES
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. PART OF THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT GOES INLAND
AGAIN BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
33N75W TO 27N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W IN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO
THE EAST OF 90W.

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO A WINDWARD PASSAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N75W IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG 10N
BETWEEN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 86W...AROUND
THE TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE
55W/56W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N43W TO 32N59W TO 29N71W TO
30N80W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE
EAST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 31N17W 28N20W TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE VIA SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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