[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N92W WHICH IS E OF THE A
TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TO THE NW OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER. A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS
THE S GULF AS DEPICTED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 22N
BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 97W BEING ENHANCED BY THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE
MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE RAINS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO NE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 37W S OF 14N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE
AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N TO OFF
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS ALONG THE E EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM S INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST
TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN GULF OF MEXICO IS ALONG 93W-94W S OF 25N TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE BASE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF AND COUPLED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY DISCUSSED THERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N8W SW TO
17N14W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 7N21W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N43W 6N49W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
18W-24W AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW ALONG 26N91W
TO NEAR 23N96W WHICH IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF E OF
91W WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE S GULF DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG
30N TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH OVER
S GEORGIA. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE NW GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE N AND E OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO
MOVE OVER THE SURFACE LOW IN THE S GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN N FLOW ALOFT WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WILL AS W OF 83W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N
TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO 11N79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TUE AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN BY WED. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WED AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN THU
TO THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN NAPLES AND MELBOURNE CONTINUING TO BEYOND
32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W
ALONG 30N66W TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-73W
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-73W TO ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A
WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N51W BUT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND IS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N39W ALONG 31N43W TO 32N47W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 15W-35W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 29N28W TO
27N33W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS ARE UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF 22N TO NEAR 65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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