[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 15N93W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SRN GULF. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND
THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. EXPECT
MOIST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
OVER THE SRN GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SW
GULF.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N34W 10N36W 5N37W.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
IT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN INFRARED
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N
TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 17N61W...
PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE...TO 14N63W TO NORTHERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. SAHARAN DUST HAS BEEN COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W ALSO IS FEELING THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ITS
CORRESPONDING WIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N
TO 19N3W TO 22N12W TO 14N17W TO 7N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N27W TO 7N36W 5N40W 5N45W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AND A RIDGE...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N105W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 28N81W 24N85W 17N95W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF 76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN
360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 76W AND 88W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITHIN 330 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF 88W IN MEXICO AND IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
EXTEND FROM 18N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE RIDGE THAT IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT
IS ON TOP OF THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

 GET READY FOR MORE RAIN...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF 70W AS LONG
AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAIN INTACT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS
ORIGINS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N72W 30N76W 27N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N52W
TO 28N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 24N48W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27W PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT/WALTON





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