[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO
8N31W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE JUST W OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY
W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING
FROM 19N55W TO 12N59W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OF WHICH THE SRN EXTENT IS
ALREADY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
61W-70W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-60W. STRONG ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD INTO THE
BASIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 15N93W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SRN GULF. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND
THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. EXPECT
MOIST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
OVER THE SRN GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SW
GULF.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 23N
ALONG 21N11W TO THE COAST NEAR 14N17W AND OVER WATER TO 9N21W.
THE ITCZ AXIS PICKS UP FROM 9N21W ALONG 10N30W 6N40W EQ52W. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE W
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ALL OTHER
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY TO CENTRAL MEXICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
87W...ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...AND IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REACHES MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO
THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO IS HELPING TO SPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO
THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHER RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF
78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 22N
BETWEEN 35W AND 57W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS DUST MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND
WATERS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...NOW ABOUT 140 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W. GET READY FOR MORE RAIN...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF
70W AS LONG AS THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAIN
INTACT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ITS
ORIGINS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N72W 30N76W 27N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N52W
TO 28N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 24N48W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27W PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT/WALTON





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