[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N. THE POSITION IS BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE TPW IMAGERY. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 31W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N67W 15N68W 16N70W 16N71W...ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 21N2W 18N9W 20N14W 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W TO
8N34W 8N38W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 5N TO 7N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18W. DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 90W. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N88W. BROADER AND MORE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 25N88W CYCLONIC
CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CONNECTED TO THE LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
20N TO THE WEST OF 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N92W
23N96W 19N97W...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N93W 24N95W 22N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPARATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS CENTERED NEAR
21N81W ABOUT 80 NM TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 19N TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND
83W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE
COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 76W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 34N50W.
A SECOND TROUGH BEGINS NEAR 32N52W AND IT CONTINUES TO 29N61W
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N71W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO A CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N40W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N49W...TO STILL ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N55W TO
12N57W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 31N53W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N53W TO 29N58W AND 26N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 32N
BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND THEN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES A RIDGE THAT STARTS AT ONE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N64W...GOING TO A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N68W...CONTINUING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...GOING ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N85W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N39W 25N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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