[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM
13N31W TO 6N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS OVER THE WAVE SHOWED A SHARP LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE AXIS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED FROM
14N61W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 70W S OF 15N INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE
EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
11N15W TO 10N23W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG
11N30W 9N40W 7N50W TO 10N60W. A TROPICAL WAVE DISRUPTS THE FLOW
ALONG 32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NNE
CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE EXTENDING SW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N92W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING WITH
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA IN THE NW
BASIN. SURFACE RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN E OF THE BOUNDARY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EAST CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W S OF 15N. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
TONIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF
13N W OF 73W...DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBS
INDICATE TRADE WIND FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO
25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS. THE
CONVECTION IN THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 27N71W. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 66W-72W.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE ATLC WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A NEAR
STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH AROUND 26N53W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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