[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 6N-13N ALONG
30W/31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 8N-14N ALONG 58W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-64W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 10N22W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS
ALONG 10N23W TO 10N29W WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE DISRUPTS THE FLOW
THEN RESUMES ALONG 9N33W 7N46W TO 9N57W WHERE ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE DISRUPTS THE FLOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E CONUS TO ALONG THE N GULF
COAST SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMING OFF THE TEXAS COAST
AS OF 22/1500 UTC. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALONG 30N94W TO
27N98W CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM TO THE SE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE SW
COAST OF MEXICO GIVING THE SW GULF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 93W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE SPREADING ACROSS THE W
GULF AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA W OF 87W. THE GULF E OF 87W
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
GENERATING SHOWERS OVER N HISPANIOLA AND NE CUBA. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO
72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN E 64W ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THEN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-75W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N65W TO 32N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 31N34W
NARROWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
25N54W CONTINUING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD...THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/HUFFMAN




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