[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ANALYZED ALONG 21W S
OF 16N MOVING W AT NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 51W/52W S
OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 72W S OF
12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY
AS IT MOVES OVER COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 20N11W THEN S
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 15N19W WHERE IT IS
DISRUPTED BY A TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ON THE W
SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N23W ALONG 6N37W TO 7N49W WHERE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE DISRUPTS THE FLOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 38W-51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
54W-61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE SW
COAST OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN TAMPICO AND
TUXPAN TO FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING
THE SW GULF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 24N
W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND
TAMPA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOISTURE SURGE SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N88W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT N OF AREA ON WED AND
REBUILD ACROSS N GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-77W WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER HAITI. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN TO 75W. THE MONSOON TROF EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND TO THE W
CARIBBEAN BY SAT AND W OF AREA SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W TO
ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO OVER CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-77W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1025 NM IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N34W
NARROWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
26N53W CONTINUING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11W/12W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DRIFT N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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