[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO
5N46W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA S OF
11N ALONG 67W/68W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT MAKING THE EXACT WAVE POSITION DIFFICULT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ALONG 22N12W THEN S
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 5N29W 8N46W TO 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-21W AND
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE SW COAST
OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TUXPAN TO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR TAMPA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND TAMPA TO THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE SPREADING N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO BETWEEN 87W-93W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE THEN BRIEFLY
MOVE N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE N GULF WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO
NEAR 13N73W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROF EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N80W ACROSS
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC IS
JUST N OF CUBA AND COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
70W-81W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO COLOMBIA BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT
REACHES THE E PACIFIC REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W
TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E
ALONG 20N72W TO 32N62W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
26N TO ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-77W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
30N43W ALONG 24N56W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE MONA PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC
EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W AND A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N41W ALONG 25N54W NARROWING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. THIS IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 10W INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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