[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 12N43W TO 5N45W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE MOVES ALONG WITH AN AREA OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WASTER IMAGERY. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ANALYZED FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF HISPANIOLA TO INLAND OVER NW
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE MOVES AHEAD
OF A MOISTURE SURGE NOTICED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT...AND SO THE CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
63W-68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N17W TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FORM THIS
POINT ALONG 6N30W TO 8N42W. THEN...IT RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 8N46W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-42W. SCATTERED
WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND INTO MEXICO
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCING AN AREA OF SSE TO RETURN FLOW
UP TO 20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT OBSERVED W OF 84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW N OF
24N BETWEEN 88W-95W...AND ALSO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 24N BETWEEN W83-89W. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTICED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN...MOVING NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 18N W
OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE FAR SW BASIN S OF
12N W OF 73W DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN GENERATING CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
63W-68W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MARINE
OBS INDICATING EASTERLY TRADES UP TO 25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 20N. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE CONVECTION IS THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE ATLC WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 28N44W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERATING 10-20 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WEST
ATLC GENERATING AN AREA OF WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING MOST
OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 70W-78W. ANOTHER WEAK
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE SUPPORTING A WEAK
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL
ATLC... ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N45W ENDING NEAR
27N54W. NO ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED NEAR THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE FROM 29N36W TO 22N35W WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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