[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W...FROM PUERTO RICO
TO VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC PRECIPITATION IS
RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE GUATEMALA THUNDERSTORMS OF SIX HOURS AGO APPEAR TO HAVE
WEAKENED BECAUSE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA
HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 17N
TO 16N5W 19N14W 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W
8N39W...INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...TO A FLORIDA STRAITS
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N81W...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N92W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 72W
INCLUDING IN THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 93W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO T.S. BEATRIZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THE GUATEMALA THUNDERSTORMS OF SIX HOURS AGO APPEAR TO
HAVE WEAKENED BECAUSE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA
HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N58W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN GUATEMALA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT AS STRONG
AS IT WAS EARLIER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS REMAIN.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH TOWARD
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN GUATEMALA. MORE
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 68W...FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 16N68W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N60W TO 22N66W
TO 16N68W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 31N46W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N46W TO 27N54W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 29N50W 26N57W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N58W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 34W/35W
FROM 23N TO 30N IS MOVING THROUGH BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
20W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
26N31W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
27W AND 41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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