[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC FROM 11N33W TO 03N35W MOVING W AROUND
15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND S OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NEAR ST THOMAS TO THE
N COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W-NW AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS
EXTENDING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W S ALONG THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N91W
MOVING W-NW AROUND 12 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND WESTERN YUCATAN
ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER
S GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N20W TO 09N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO 07N32W TO 07N40W TO 06N50W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W AND
35W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W AND
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED SW TO NE EXTENDS FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NE THROUGH 26N90W TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND WITH DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE GULF. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
FLORIDA NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA SW ACROSS THE EXTREME SE GULF TO
TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N92W. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR THE DRY
TORTUGAS AS INDICATED BY RECENT LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED WEAKENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM EAST OF OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE N
COAST OF CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MON. A
WEAK RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 27N EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE W GULF THEN WILL
DIMINISH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N81W WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N60W. THESE ANTICYCLONES ARE SEPARATED BY A
SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW NW OF THE SHEAR
AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURGE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AS CAPTURED BY RECENT
WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED MOVING
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THEREAFTER. 20-25 KT E-SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF THE SE UNITED
STATES COAST AND INTO THE FAR SW N ATLC REGION EXTENDING FROM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR
VERO BEACH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST E OF NAPLES AND
FORT MYERS...AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N65W SW TO THE
BAHAMAS SUPPORTING A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N75W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE HIGH TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR VERO BEACH. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N52W
TO 28N62W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N46W
TO 27N58W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THERE TO 26N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT PORTION WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY MON
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST. SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATED THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N35W TO 25N33W. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING
WSW AT 5 TO 10 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB




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