[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC FROM 11N31W TO 03N33W MOVING W AROUND
15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120
NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WAS CAPTURED BY A 1106 UTC
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH INDICATED MAINLY 10-15 KT WINDS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NEAR ANGUILLA TO ISLA
DE MARGARITA MOVING W-NW AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 1426
UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 15-20 KT WINDS WITH 20-25
KT WINDS POSSIBLE W OF 70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N89W TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W MOVING W-NW
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND FAR S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 84W AND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS. A GREATER PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER WATER INTO THE SE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY
AND A SURGE OF SE-S 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N17W TO 08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N22W TO 07N31W TO 07N40W TO 07N50W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 08N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W AND 41W AND WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF FROM 26N98W NE TO
30N88W WITH VERY DRY AIR UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE GULF. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SW TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N88W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY LAND BASED
OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120
NM OF THE TROUGH BEING ENHANCED BY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MON. A WEAK RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 27N EXTENDING
FROM HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC E OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
W GULF THEN WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N82W WITH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING FROM W
CUBA TO JUST N OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N83W. CONVECTION IS
BEING ENHANCED NW OF WHERE THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES MEET.
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N61W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED
IN THE SECTION ABOVE IS BEING ENHANCED UNDER UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURGE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS AS CAPTURED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED
MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THEREAFTER. 20-25 KT E-SE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST
AND INTO THE FAR SW N ATLC REGION EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT E OF FLORIDA
AND N OF THE BAHAMAS. RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SW
10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 25N71W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N73W WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING
FROM THE HIGH TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH
REACHES FROM 31N50W TO 27N58W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THERE TO 26N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60-120 NM E-SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
STATIONARY FRONT PORTION WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES OFF TO THE NE-E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY




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