[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE
SOUTH OF 9N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. THIS
POSITION IS TO THE EAST OF THE 19/0600 UTC BULLETIN. CURRENT
DATA SHOW THAT WE WERE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH OUR
POSITION.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
STARTING NEAR ANTIGUA/MONTSERRAT TO 14N63W TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 16N58W.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF AN AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...AND THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO
THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND IN CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST
OF 80W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN EASTERN CUBA
ALONG 78W FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS POSITION IS TO THE EAST
OF THE 19/0600 UTC BULLETIN. CURRENT DATA SHOW THAT WE WERE
A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH OUR POSITION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 16N7W 18N13W 10N18W 8N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 8N23W 9N31W...
INTO THE BORDER AREA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH
GUIANA THAT IS NEAR 3N52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE PART OF MEXICO THAT IS
IN BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA-TO-MEXICO TROUGH.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 73W
COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 23N90W 19N93W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN GUATEMALA APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N73W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N92W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 15N69W. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
STARTING NEAR ANTIGUA/MONTSERRAT TO 14N63W TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 16N58W. THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF AN AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...AND THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITH THE TRADEWIND
EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N TO
THE WEST OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 30N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 58W
AND 72W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
A TROUGH IS ALONG 30N58W 27N65W 23N71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 28N60W
25N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 31N50W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N50W TO 27N60W 25N70W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N47W 28N56W
25N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N55W TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N66W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 28N. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
45W. ONE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N19W JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W.
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W TO 30N40W TO 27N52W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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