[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N28W 8N29W 3N30W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 10N60W MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN EASTERN CUBA ALONG 78W FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 18N3W 15N13W 8N22W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 8N22W 9N30W 7N47W...
INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND EASTERN SURINAME NEAR 4N55W. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST
AND IN COASTAL PLAINS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...AND
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W
AND 46W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT IS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA/WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INTO THE PART OF MEXICO THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
FLORIDA-TO-MEXICO TROUGH. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA
TO 24N87W TO 21N90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING...DISSIPATING...AND RE-DEVELOPING DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN BELIZE.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N MOVING
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN EASTERN CUBA ALONG 78W FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND
77W IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/ NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA TO 15N69W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W FROM NORTHERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA INTO ITS COASTAL WATERS. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ON TOP OF IT. THIS
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN ADVANCE OF A 57W/60W TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITH THE TRADEWIND EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 71W AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N77W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A TROUGH IS ALONG 30N58W 27N65W 23N71W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 28N60W 25N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N47W TO 30N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N52W TO
27N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N57W BEYOND 32N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N59W TO
28N72W TO 28N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ONE
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N19W JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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