[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM
15N19W TO 5N22W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS A NEW SURGE
OF MOISTURE TOGETHER WITH AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE AS
DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE OCEAN FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
12N50W TO 3N354W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 51W-60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE OCEAN FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N81W TO 8N82W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A LARGE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-20N BETWEEN 78W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 20N00W TO
16N10W TO THE COAST AT 12N17W. THE ITCZ IS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 8N23W TO 2N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 3N51W. AN AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 28N86W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...S
ALABAMA...AND S GEORGIA FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 83W-88W. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATES THE NE GULF. COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT
...MORE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.
FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA ...AND N VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 60W-75W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CUBA...JAMAICA ...AND HISPANIOLA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N
OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W 28N60W 25N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 29N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
65W-75W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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