[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 1N49W MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED
BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
INVERTED-V STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL. THE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 42W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANALYZED
FROM E OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N75W TO 11N78W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N W OF 73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN
WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING SW TO
6N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FORM THIS POINT ALONG 3N30W 2N40W
3N45W. THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N49W TO
7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT THE
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND NORTHERN LIBERIA E OF 24W
FROM 3N-10N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AT
SURFACE...A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NE BASIN NEAR
28N85W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED
OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND WESTERN WATERS OF CUBA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL S OF 22N E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 20 KT
WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE TEXAS COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND DRIFTS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE NE OF
COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 73W.
THE NORMAL EASTERLY TRADES HAVE BEEN REPLACED FOR BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING AROUND THE CONVECTION REGION W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE OUT OF THE
CONVECTION REGION...LEAVING THE AREA RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S IF HISPANIOLA AND N OF HONDURAS. EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA TO 100 NM EAST. THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS SE IN THE NEXT 56 HOURS. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N55W 2761W TO 25N68W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50/100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 35N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N30W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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