[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N40W TO 3N343W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 19N75W TO
10N75W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH A
LARGE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 72W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND THE E
PACIFIC S OF 16N89W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ABOUT TO
MERGE WITH A LOW OVER THE E PACIFIC AND MAY INTENSIFY THAT
CIRCULATION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN
87W-91W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 17N00W TO
10N10W TO THE COAST AT 8N13W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
6N19W 3N35W TO 7N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
7W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N86W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...S
ALABAMA...AND S GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 82W-89W. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATES THE NE GULF. COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
FLORIDA W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM
SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ...AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. FURTHER
E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA ...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR
12N76W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 26N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 25N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
56W-67W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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