[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W TO 2N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N67W
TO 10N70W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND
IS BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF TE UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 61W. WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ANALYZED FROM
17N82W TO 8N84W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA INTO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TI THIS WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE ALONG 8N14W 6N25W
8N35W. THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7N40W TO
3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT THE
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150/180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AT
SURFACE...A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 25N85W. THIS
BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN WATERS OF
CUBA ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL S OF 22N E OF 90W. A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED INLAND OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA IS GENERATING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF-SHORE N OF
TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 29N. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE NE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 73W.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE
COVERS THE SEA E OF 70W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
N OF 16N E OF 69W. OTHERWISE...10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N64W 2771W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 27N. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW ATLC BASIN.
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 52W-58W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35N28W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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