[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N32W TO 2N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ AND NOT THE WAVE ITSELF.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS BEING
PUSHED AHEAD OF TE UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW
PRESSURE BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE DRY
AIR. THUS...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ENTERING THE E ATLC
NEAR 18N16W TO 10N18W WHERE THERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N25W
3N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N E OF 18W TO
JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM
24N87W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
TO NEAR 19N91W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. A WEAK NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W. DRY STABLE AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF LEAVING THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NE GULF IS UNDER A
LAYER OF MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE N OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY AS INDICATED BY NOAA
SSD FIRE DETECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SE
GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SE
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN REBUILD ALONG 28N THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N78W. MODERATELY DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PANAMA NEAR
9N79W TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO
14N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SHOWERS ACTIVITY FOR THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLOW DOWN TONIGHT THEN
MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
THU AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT BEFORE MOVING
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 62W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N69W WHERE IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY TO A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA
NEAR 31N82W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM
30N77W TO OVER NE FLORIDA TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM
OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO 31N54W. A NARROWING CENTRAL ATLC UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 22N48W INTO THE TROPICS TO
NEAR 12N52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH AND A 1026 MB
HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS S REACHING FROM NEAR 31N67W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY
THU MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI AND
SLIDE SLIGHTLY S ON SAT AND SUN.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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