[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N27W TO 1N31W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS AHEAD OF A V-STRUCTURE CLOUD PATTERN NOTICED ON INFRA
RED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N62W TO 7N62W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE ON VISIBLE
NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 19N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL/SW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N73W TO
8N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS AN AREA OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...LIMITING CONVECTION ONLY TO THE SW
BASIN S OF 13N W OF 75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA
ALONG 12N16W...QUICKLY BECOMING ITCZ EXTENDING SW TO 8N25W.
THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N32W 3N40W 2N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
SUPPORTING A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THIS BENIGN
FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON VISIBLE NIGHT
CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED
ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFTING TO OVER THE N GULF FRI
AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
LEAVING THE BASIN ALMOST CLEAR OF ANY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SW BASIN. THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG
1004 MB LOW OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE PACIFIC
OCEAN...EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OFF
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THIS GROUP OF ISLANDS...AND WILL CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE INTO PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...10
TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS PARALLEL TO 31N W OF 67W AS A COLD
FRONT...BECOMING STATIONARY W OF 75W INTO THE COAST OF GEORGIA.
THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY E OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO NARROW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ATLC...GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 55W-61W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR
34N39W AND 35N16W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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